A recent study by the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) has found that undocumented immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than U.S.-born citizens, challenging a recurring narrative in American political discourse.
The study, funded by the National Institute of Justice and presented to the El Paso County Commissioners Court, analyzed thousands of jail records and found consistently lower criminogenic risk levels among immigrants, especially undocumented ones.
Researchers examined two data sets: a quantitative analysis of 5,175 consecutive jail intakes at the El Paso County Jail and in-depth structured interviews with 273 inmates, as El Paso Times explains. According to the findings, immigrants accounted for just 15% of jail bookings, despite comprising 23% of the local population.
When booked, immigrants were less likely to be charged with serious offenses, had fewer prior violent or felony convictions, and scored lower on pretrial risk assessments. They also tended to have more stable living situations and were less likely to be under supervision.
In the second part of the study, reported by NBC affiliate KTSM, researchers used the "Central Eight" criminogenic risk factors to compare immigrants and U.S.-born citizens:
- Pattern of criminal behavior
- Antisocial personality pattern
- Antisocial peers
- Pro-criminal cognitions
- Substance abuse
- Family and marital problems
- Employment and education problems
- Lack of prosocial leisure activities
The results showed that undocumented immigrants had lower risk scores on seven out of eight indicators, including substance abuse, pro-criminal attitudes, and association with antisocial peers. The only category where undocumented immigrants showed greater risk was education and employment—factors researchers noted are often driving reasons for migration.
UTEP's Theodore R. Curry, associate professor of criminal justice, noted that the idea that immigrants commit more crimes than citizens is not supported by data. "Studies done here in El Paso and elsewhere in the United States consistently show that immigrants have lower crime rates than native-born U.S. citizens," he said.
These findings contrast sharply with statements made by political figures at recent events such as last year's Republican National Convention, where officials described a so-called surge in migrant crime. However, national data shows that crime and immigration trends often move in opposite directions. For instance, violent crime rose in 2020 when illegal immigration dropped, and declined in 2021 and 2022 as immigration increased.
A broader review of crime statistics also supports these findings. For decades, immigrants have had lower incarceration and felony arrest rates than U.S.-born citizens. Border counties in Texas consistently report lower violent crime rates than state and national averages, despite large immigrant populations.
Ultimately, the report concludes that policies aimed at reducing immigration based on public safety concerns are not grounded in evidence. As the study's abstract notes explain, "policies limiting immigration (particularly from Mexico) based on the idea that immigrants are prone to crime are misguided given our finding that jailed immigrants have low levels of criminal risk factors."
Originally published on Latin Times
